Stephen,
Glad you joined the thread. We can all write volumes about analysts, but that's not really the point. WFR seems to be at an interesting moment. This kind one day drop usually is followed by some bounce and so far MEMC has been trading big volumes with little price change.
What does that mean? How can a stock with such a small float get so many trades across and not drop or rise? Today, the market is very positive, but again the price change is small. Is this an accumulation which will be followed by a sharp rise when the sellers are gone? Or the opposite when the buyers are gone?
Emotionally, (sorry Mohan), I can't believe the demand for wafers is going to go away. In the last Atmel earnings report, they sited wafer supply as a possible threat to futures? It seems like analysts have been under-predicting computer sales and the ubiqitous rise of silicon content in everything we buy. It seemed so obvious that Intel was selling well, but analysts claimed computer sales were falling too fast. Look at them today. Okay, a processor isn't a "commodity" item, but I think computers are.
Anyway, as an analyst, what is the big change that's coming? Are they going to sell tons of new computers for the NT upgrade, and are they going to need tons of memory? I read NT only works well with 32M and one editor in PC mag recommends 64M. What's your opinion?
Mark,
PS Is there an interesting wafer supplier for GaAs? Going by what's happening with Vittesse and Triquent, this may be a place to watch. |
