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Technology Stocks : SOFTKEY=MERGER MANIA

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To: Mr.Conan who wrote (931)3/19/1997 3:18:00 PM
From: Thomas C. Donald   of 966
 
Core issues ....

Opperheimer's 7Feb97 report on TLC, written by Leonard Brecken (212-667-7024) and Robert Fagin (212-667-5977), states the following:

"Shares have traded down some 30% due to investor concerns over the company's sluggish domestic retail sales and market share losses which we believe continue to be the core issues."

Based on this, the PC Data report is what everyone is focusing on. It should be noted, however, that sales in retail stores (which are all that PC Data can monitor) are less than half of TLC's sales, and direct sales (which I presume include mail order and internet store sales) are probably competing with the retail store sales. Look at the sales analysis and the conference call I referenced in recent messages (#909 and #919).

Given this, it is not clear that TLC is even losing market share, and the sluggishness of retail sales reported by PC Data may be simply due to the fact that TLC is selling the same products to the same customers through other channels not monitored by PC Data. The people who are buying TLC shares now (eg., yesterday's block trades) probably understand this and are focusing on quarterly reports instead of PC Data statistics of questionable relevance.
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