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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (92)	6/11/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: J.T.	of 19219

For sure, I have made my share of mistakes. I have learned from my mistakes and try to get back on the horse after getting bucked to the ground. Back-testing is important. Who said you could never call a market top? I started preaching caution on April 28, 1999, two plus weeks right before the market top on May 13, 1999 in the DOW and SPX: On IDEA post 25,780: <OT...... Race of "RUN FOR THE ROSES" is nearing the finish line very shortly now. Like any good poker player, know when to hold 'em and know when to cash in the vast sums of chips and let the gravy ride. IDEA takes the prize. Now then... Don't let anyone rob you of your (PRIZE) profits. Greed makes folly of us all and is a great temptor. Certainly the markets can go up another 3% to 5%. But with major indices at or above 20% of their 200 DMA you know there will be more to be made when the rubber band snaps back>... I mentioned High Alert Status and RUN FOR THE ROSES WAS OVER ON MAY 21, 1999: Message 9656650 Message 9657522 Post 26548 on IDEA: <In the past you always had compelling argument of leadership sector. Today there is none. Only dead-cat bounces. This thread is not meant to scare anyone or raise alarm, only awareness that market rules can change at anytime and market does bidding for no one. I see market contraction into July 4 holiday weekend with bits of minor rallies along the way. This is my biased opinion only. June is the second worst month statistically for market last 50 years at it is down 28 times and up 22 times for SPX and DOW. Stock Traders Almanac says June tends to be a down month during bear markets. And if we have had this tremendous bull run since early Oct low, whither and when comes the correction? My bet is now. Followed by summer rally in July.> Why the time was now for the correction?: Message 9765197 Answer: Because there is no fear in this pull-back: Message 9884931 And our dear friend Jerry Favors to thank the ultimate contrary indicator and kiss of death for bulls. This is why the BULL-FROG in warm water always gets cooked: Because of COMPLACENCY. NO FEAR OR RESPECT OF MARKETS. And the problem with Interest Rates? Message 9888446 It is really about ASSET INFLATION. Where now? LOWER, AND RETEST OF 200 DMA'S MORE REASONABLE VALUATION LEVELS and opportunity for great values ahead. Best, J.T.

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