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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: John Pitera who wrote (26063)6/24/1999 4:21:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (2) of 44573
 
John,

I'm not an expert...Yet <<smile>>
I have not watched them long enough to give you a definitive answer.

So you should ask others

However Murphy's Definition:

Reversal day takes place either at a top or bottom.
· Top reversal day - setting of a new high in an uptrend, followed by a lower close on the same day.
· Wider the range for the day and the heavier the volume -- the more significant
· Volume is key

Outside Day
· Both the high and the low on the reversal day exceed the range of the previous day.
· It does carry more significance.
· He does not mention having to close outside the previous days interday high or low.

This would apply to weekly and monthly reversals

GZ maintains it must close outside the previous month, week, day to be considered an active reversal top or bottom

Looking at charts there seems to be a reaction to both....
In the case of May 99 a completed Outside pattern must have a close outside the previous days Low....this one does not.

My conclusion....Incompletes are worth noting and produce results as well as completed ones. But occurring in real time they have to be questioned and the overall trend considered.

But within todays context is May 98....an Outside Month a Top?

Well.....all of the recent Outside months produced market moves of some substance to the upside. May is not the only one that closed lower then the previous days close. So I'd have to guess it is not going to reverse this market....But that is a guess, not educated. <<smile>>

But it's Important.....

Here's a chart:
May 99
Oct 98 - complete
Oct 97 - incomplete
Jan 96
There are others
What do you think?
If you ask others let me know?

iqc.com
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