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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (27250)7/9/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Chip:

I am still satisfied with the triangle pattern. Take a look at this chart.

beta.iqc.com

Compare the two important formations of this year. The first triangle pattern from January to March 1999 is not really that nice. However, the volume through the pattern was nice. There were actually two breakouts from it. The first breakout was in February and then a return to the apex and more deliberation. The second breakout was the one at the beginning of March which screamed. In mid-March, we began the return to the apex. I had hoped that it would return to 9,450 but it stopped at the top of the formation and 9,625. Once it successfully tested the top of the formation, it exploded upward. I am expecting something similar and we could be rounding the corner for a return to the apex now. It could take several days. A few nice days of calm selling would be perfect. However, this market is so strong that it may first move up another couple of hundred points before testing it.

Compare the volume at the breakout points and during the formation. You have to ignore the volume in the June option expiration. We had nice declining volume during the two formations and then an increase in volume for the breakout. In addition to the formations, the market internals were very similar at the end of June and the beginning of March.

The triangle will fail if there is a decline through the apex of the triangle.
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