Hi Joel,
Thanks for joining us. I've got a few minutes right now, but let me paste something from BancBoston Robertson Stephens regarding e-commerce software (such as e-procurement):
"...powerful trends are creating a multi-billion dollar market opportunity in the eBusiness applications space -- as we are in the early stages of a major architectural and applications shift from client/server to Web-based applications..."
Commerce One (CMRC), Ariba (ARBA), Clarus (CLRS), and Concur (CNQR) compete in this space. Their market caps are:
CMRC: $1.45 bil, PSR: 51
ARBA: $5.79 bil, PSR, 150
CLRS: $106 mil, PSR, 2
CNQR: $848 mil, PSR: 22
Note that Clarus sticks out like a sore thumb based on valuation, but it is important to note that their e-commerce revenues are a much smaller portion of the $106 TTM sales. It is claimed by the BancBoston R.S. analyst that this is an undiscovered e-commerce play. It also has a partnership with Microsoft to round the two other areas of the e-business that they already do cover, Internet-based Procurement Software and Expense Management Software. Their partnership with Microsoft allows them to get in the tail-end of the procedure by providing the commerce server. <thank Giga Information Group for the above information, esp. Erica Rugullies>
According to Forrester research, the business-to-business e-commerce market was at $17 billion in 1998, projected to grow to $41 billion in 1998-1999, and to $327 billion by 2002. That's a compounded annual growth rate of 109% for 4 years running. Now that's, a tornado, and an interesting one as well because Microsoft has decided to hook up with their new friends to capitalize on it.
<after a phone conversation>
I just spoke to Nancy at Clarus Investor Relations, and she informed me that Ariba was indeed the number one player in the market, with about 35 customers, with Clarus and Commerce One vying for the number two position with 23 for Clarus, and a similar 'low-20's' for Commerce One. She explained that Mastercard was also making a push for their new procurement card, from which Clarus and Microsoft benefit: Clarus provides the software and Microsoft runs the server. She was fairly excited about the company's ability to leverage such relationships with Mastercard and Microsoft, and also mentioned that they had other large companies like MetLife and First Data as customers.
Based on 8 times sales for the e-commerce side of CLRS' business, the above analyst projected a conservative fair value of $12 for the stock. If they can become recognized anywhere near Commerce One's level, then I would say that this could be a potential gorilla game play, but with a value tilt added to it as well.
Earnings are expected to be out on Tuesday, and others will be looking closely at the expected improvements in the e-commerce side of their busines.
--Rainier |
