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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: steve in socal who wrote (8191)	8/13/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Steve, Given the numbers so far, I think Mr G might not pull the trigger in normal circumstances, but these are not normal times. Y2k fears in the banking area are already prompting the fed in conjunction with the treasury to make sure more cash is available than normal near the end of the year and then there is that presidential election coming up. My best guess is that he takes another 1/4 point as an insurance policy now vs. having to make a move in the later part of the year. PPI out today and CPI early next week are going to be screwy because of the heat wave in the east coast during this period. Electricity is in the PPI and might be up significantly. Gasoline is certainly higher going into the last of the driving vacation period. Who knows? As far as a half point rise, I doubt the numbers are that convincing. If I were looking at this stuff, it looks like a spike vs. a radical change in the slope of the rise off the very low inflation / deflation we had last fall. I'd be willing to wait, but then again, I don't get paid to make this decision. ---- Dave

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