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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: donald sew who wrote (31918)	8/29/1999 5:42:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 44573

Thanks, Donald. That was very clear. After looking at the NYSE composite chart and the Russell 2000 I've turned bearish (which means I'm off the scale now) <g> All the patterns that eluded me on the SPX chart are presented very clearly on the NYSE composite chart. Furthermore, the Russell (like the German DAX index) turned down in July from a 9 months long BEAR MARKET RALLY. It topped in 4/98 (the DAX topped 7/98), and the rally from the October lows had a clear ABC (corrective) pattern. From the July top the SPX down leg took 17 trading days and the correction up 11 trading days. On T+29 we turned down again. A peculiar thing- In both the '29 and '87 crashes the crash phase started after the corrective move ended on T+28, and the market turned down again on T+29. In both crashes it took 8 more trading days for panic to inflame. In '87 T+36 was the first strong down day of the 4 days crash (Black Monday was on T+39), and in '29 T+36 was the first day of panic selling (T+39 and T+40 were the infamous 28th and 29th of October, but T+38 was flat after a recovery on T+37). Arik

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