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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (31929)8/29/1999 6:43:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Arik,

>>>> From the July top the SPX down leg took 17 trading days and the correction up 11 trading days. On T+29 we turned down again. A peculiar thing- In both the '29 and '87 crashes the crash phase started after the corrective move ended on T+28, and the market turned down again on T+29.
In both crashes it took 8 more trading days for panic to inflame. In '87 T+36 was the first strong down day of the 4 days crash (Black Monday was on T+39), and in '29 T+36 was the first day of panic selling (T+39 and T+40 were the infamous 28th and 29th of October, but T+38 was flat after a recovery on T+37). <<<<

So if I read it correctly, the timing would be right around LABOR DAY.

Im not one for forcasting huge moves in either direction, since I feel that on a mathematical basis the best probability in predicting such is only 62%, however it is interesting that you noticed that.

Thanks seeya

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