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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: JZGalt who wrote (8360)	8/30/1999 9:08:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Hi Dave, AMKR isn't one I follow. Thanks. In the morning paper there was an article indicating that interest in IPOs is slowing. In the "Zeal" component of the Idiot Wave I attempt to pick up on this in some fashion. However, Zeal has been showing a contraction in the total number of issues being traded and has been indicating such for a very long time. It's only been in the last month or two that its started to come back towards a neutral rating from being stuck in the bullish position. I measure the percent change in the total number of NYSE and NASDAQ issues being traded weekly. The measure is against a 10 week exponential moving average, I believe. execpc.com (see the last of the four graphs) Historically these long periods of contraction in the "supply" of equity issues (data since 1982) has given nice support to an otherwise frothy market. This most recent long contraction started in late 1997. It's been steadily shrinking at a rate of 1% to 2% for all of that time. Any thoughts on such "macro" thinking? Best regards, Tom

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