Fab capacity shortage looms
By Craig Matsumoto
EE Times
(09/09/99, 11:51 a.m. EDT)
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Shortages in fab capacity could begin to surface for
0.18-micron and 0.25-micron production during the next few years as a result of
capacity cutbacks during the semiconductor industry's last down cycle, according to a
new industry report.
While overall capacity will actually exceed demand until 2003, supply will
outweigh demand at larger line widths, particularly at the 0.35-micron level, said Joanne
Itow, an analyst with Semico Research Corp. (Phoenix).
"In the overall market it looks fine — there's plenty of capacity. But it's not necessarily
the line width you're looking for," she said. "There's still a lot of 0.8- and 1.0-micron
capacity out there," while the industry favors finer line widths.
Overall wafer demand should grow 4 percent this year and will grow at an 11 percent
clip per year through 2003, said Itow, who gave her projections for
semiconductor-industry capacity during Semico's forecast workshop, held here on
Wednesday (Sept. 8).
A future shortage at smaller line widths would be the endgame to the capacity cuts made
in 1997, when it was becoming clear that the semiconductor downturn would be severe.
The 0.25-micron level "was the generation they were supposed to be building for," Itow
said.
Additionally, the recovery in chip sales hasn't led to a glut of fab construction because
the strength of foundries is changing the business model of integrated device
manufacturers (IDMs), Itow said.
"The IDMs are pretty much abandoning the megafab philosophy, and they're planning
on utilizing foundries for their needs," she said.
Capacity for 0.18-micron manufacturing could be served by 2003 if companies begin
ramping or restarting fab projects, Itow said. The more dramatic problems could arise
for 0.25-micron designs, however, because companies aren't likely to start up fabs —
now considered $2 billion projects — for anything but cutting-edge technology, Itow
said. Some 0.35-micron fabs could be upgradable to 0.25-micron, but not all of them,
she said.
At the same time, Semico expects most system-on-a-chip activity to aim for the
0.25-micron level, increasing demand at that level, Semico analyst Rich Wawrzyniak
said.
"There are all these pressures that will still be put on 0.25-micron capacity in the next
year," Itow said. "There might not be as clear cut a solution" as for 0.18-micron, she
said, speculating that some companies might even have to consider skipping the
0.25-micron generation and go straight to 0.18-micron parts. |
