Oh, well presume Monday I'll be Short so you can Plan. <e>
Patrick, I see you are saying that you will probably be sort on Monday, I take it you are serious. there is this esoteric idea that Monday would be a top based on th below equal days idea....I was not assigning much merit to it until I see that the Blue-Celt Warrior has stepped up to the plate and been ruminating about being short on the 13th........and Nemer assures me I'll have my head handed to me if I mess with the
Blue Celt Warrior -vbg-
Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, September 9, 1999.
Last night's update about the six technology stocks whose increase in value
over the past 20 months was worth more than the value of every United
States stock in 1982 got us to thinking. Four of the six stocks are traded
on the Over the Counter. While hundreds of stocks languish on the Over the
Counter, this handful of stocks is acting like the Dow in 1929. More and
more money going into fewer and fewer stocks. In fact it is the Over the
Counter Composite or more specifically, the Nasdaq 100 or NDX that made a
new all time high on Tuesday of this week. Then we started to think about
the equally spaced time cycle that we wrote about in our newsletter of July
23, pointing out that equally spaced periods between the July 1932 low and
a February 1966 top take us out to September 13 when added to the February
1966 top. More specifically, there were 12,269 calendar days between July
8, 1932 (that was a bottom) to February 9, 1966 (that was a top). Those, in
fact, were perhaps the most important bottom and top of this century. The
1966 top was important because on an inflation weighted basis, it was not
surpassed until almost 30 years later. If you add 12,269 calendar days to
February 9, 1966, it takes you to September 13, 1999. That is Monday of
next week. We said in our newsletter that if a market top had not been seen
by September 13, then that date would qualify as the potentially most
important time period to the end of this decade, century and millennium. At
that time we were thinking of the Dow, but now we see that it makes more
sense for the Nasdaq 100 which is being driven by four or five stocks. We
are not sure how the fact that the market has stayed up during the time
period that we allowed for a potential crash. We are not sure how that will
affect the market's progress from here, but we can tell you that any time a
high capitalization index such as the Nasdaq 100 is making a new high in
the face of worst breadth readings accompanying an all time high in the
history of our data, including 1929, there is almost surely trouble
directly ahead. Already the fact that the NDX made a new high just two days
ago, qualifies it as satisfying and terminating the 1932, 1966, 1999
pattern, but sometimes these patterns are amazingly exact. If that were
true we would have to allow for a new high to be made out Monday or Tuesday
of next week, which would be a climactic termination of the pattern. |
