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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

PICK 52.34

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Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: jttmab who wrote (781)	9/15/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 10713

Well we are severely over valued and the market was ignoring every possible bit of bad news. I threw in the towel trying to figure it out Monday when it went up despite all the bad news. I guess I was the last bear <ggg> Soon as I give up and go back to work, we tank. 100 points is nothing but the way it tanked today looking at the intra day chart was uglier than the -200 day we had. Waterfall into the close. Heinz is good and his target is really not that bad. When you look at earnigs, the interest rate, the falling dollar and number of foreign investors that could leave, we could easily get chopped in half plus the panic factor as people finally realize we aren't bouncing and all try to sell at once. Now how long will we stay down, how far will we really drop and how long will it take to do it, I don't think anyone knows. I know I tried to call the bottoms on the nets as they were falling this spring and they broke every type of trendline and fork I could draw on some of them. The indexes could be the same way. Manipulation goes both ways. Remember back to the falling stocks you have watched and how oftenthey would run the price down below a critical support just to shake out the last few TA guys that had stops set near there. Now imagine the same thing on indexes but instead of bouncing it back up to rally those shares bought on the cheap, the index is more fluid and controlled by more than one big player. As the support line is broken, other big players see the violation so they hit thier sell program buttons to short further etc etc etc. I could get ugly just from teh snowball affect. I still am not convinced this is the beginning of the end but then again, I wouldn't go long here or in the near future either unless I could baby sit my position. Hopefully I will have a better picture when my data comes in and I run through some charts. Of course this had to start the day I give up on my shorts and go back to work. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

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