Hi Rarebird, Mohan, Bobby, Bilow, John, tekgk, tippet and all,
What a reunion.
Since 8/97 the market has consistently narrowed. Different sectors peaked at different times, and the techs were the last engine to stall.
The momentum peak for the market was in April 1998. The A/D line peaked and developed a sharp downtrend since decisionpoint.com
I have mentioned before my finding that the A/D line bottoms at market bottoms, but it peaks at the momentum peak- the end of the 3 of 3 Elliotte wave. Here's my LT EW count with the A/D tops and bottoms
Message 7450830. I later revised the count itself a little
siliconinvestor.com, but the 3 of 3 A/D line top
The R2k also topped 4/98, and its rally from the October '98 low looks like a bear market rally.
If one was to look at the chart of the NYSE stocks above their 200 dma alone-http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/Current200dma.html- one could easily deduce that the market entered a bear in the 4th Q of '97 and never recovered since.
Got to go, will continue tomorrow
Nice to see the ole gang together.
SPX 900 in December remains my target. It broke the 1280 neckline and points to immediate minimal target of 1140.
Then we get a rally in November and another sharp down leg to early Dec.
I think ST target 1240-60 today or tomorrow, then correcting to 1260-80 (two-three days), then down to 1140 in two legs, first should be 60 points, second bigger.
ATG |
