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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (33502)9/29/1999 7:26:00 AM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Hi GZ:

Back on the 10th, I responded to your expectations for a good week for the bears with this.

Message 11220309

That is my most recent post to SI. It notes a major failure for the up-move on the 10th. We ended up losing around 1,000 INDU points.

The high volume on the NYSE still makes me believe that the bulls have the opportunity here. As long as there is life, the market can move up. Bears relish in the hibernation of investors.

In my opinion, we could be as little as two days from a breakout move to the upside. For that to happen, I am looking for a good one-day decline--with an emphasis on declining volume being substantial--to wipe out the selling. The second day should include a major failure on a move down. Say, limit down or close in overnight futures with a small initial decline in the markets at the open of trading and a subsequent failure to move down by noon Eastern of that day. The volume on that day, or the next day, would approach 1.3 to 1.5 billion NYSE shares. The advancing volume for that day would be large and overwhelm the number of advancing NYSE issues. The one-day up-move could be enormous--maybe 300 to 600 INDU points. If that happens, we head for 12,000 on the INDU.

On the other hand, a marked decline in volume after the 30th would spell additional decline.

But who really knows, we will have to wait and see.
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