Hi HT, I use Newport all the time for my "real time" and theoretical portfolios, but for back testing, a "spreadsheet" version like PCA is better. One thing I do with my Newport is to keep separate sub-directories for each of my kids, my wife and my own portfolio. Newport runs in each one, but the files are kept separate so the reporting can also be summarized separately.
I'm looking forward to hearing how all goes with your new AIMware. Please feel free to ask questions here on the BB as you go along. There's lots of experienced users here to help.
In going back a few weeks in the Newsletter, I came across this note on comments on the bRELATIVE VALUATION in the market:
I don't believe interest rates are going to fall any time soon. So, to get Relative Valuation to a Bullish point, the Value Line Price/Earnings ratio would need to fall from its current 16.7 level to about 14.3. That may not sound like much, but it would equate to about DOW 9500. To some that could be painful.
Maybe it would be more pleasant to discuss where the DOW might be if we were in the MIDDLE of the Neutral area instead. That would require a V-L P/E of about 15.3 or a DOW of around 10,150. There! Don't we feel better now? All of the above speculates that earnings and interest rates remain constant. If interest rates go up, then the V-L P/E would have to go lower. If earnings rise, we might work out way out of this jam. I don't even want to think about
earnings shortfalls!
Well, as of today (DOW 10,273), we're getting darned near the mid point of the Neutral Risk area! Next week's numbers should be very interesting. Gee, maybe Lou Rukeyser will ask me to be a guest soon!!!
Best regards, Tom |
