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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Gary E who wrote (36771)	10/14/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) of 44573

Hi Hal What I meant was that after noon every single trade that I did with real money went against me. At noon I had gotten tne account up to ~$1600 .. at the end of the day I'm now at $56 .. ouch! The article I posted this morning: "I've gone down so far that everything looks like up." conventional wisdom this morning would have us expection a ralley... dead cat bounce .. whatever you want to call it. But if I ignore the context, what I see is a set up for the head fake morning open .. watch out .. careful .. etc. The head that is faked out just might be mine. HEAD FAKE MORNING .. Futures and currencies have both turned and have slopes that make sense for a further decline. They are just starting from a higher point. Mareket opens .. cash rushes up to meet futures .. futures are declining .. when the two hit at fair value (which takes only about two minuets after the bell) they both act like "daaa .. wha happened" kinda like they met head on and it hurt .. then they figure out which way they are supposed to run .. most of the time that works out to be to resume the slope of the futures .. Again .. HEAD FAKE MORNING .. turn time will be when they stop being dizzy. my view .. just remember .. the charts sing to me .. and I can lose a lot of money when they lie to me Gersh I posted this before the futures started to drop hard this morning. While the SP9Z was up +7 or so it had started to fall back. This is the typical setup for the head fake open. In other words, it looks like it's heading up. But the run up only lasts for a few minuets then falls back. The dollar was in the process of falling at that moment which would also support a lower day for the market. Add the two together and you get a lower day for the market, at least for the morning. Conventional wisdom would have us on a rebound, since we've been dropping for a day or two and were due for a bounce. In addition this is options expiration week and we are a little below where we need to be for that. So these two add up to an up day for the market .. So .. I had all the ingrediants for the day as it played out .. and I still choaked and blew it .. kicked ass this morning and got mine kicked in the afternoon. Perhaps one of these days I'll start to believe myself. <ng> Gersh

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