I am playing with the trial version of Newport. I have a lot of time on my
hands to do some testing, which isn't efficient on Newport. I'll be glad
when I get the new version of PCA. However, I do like the Newport and will
probably buy it after my trial period.
Anyway, I jotted down UOPIX's weekly prices, adjusted for a 1:5 reverse
stock split in early 99 as well as a 4:1 stock split in July 99, from as far
back as I could get prices which was early March of 98 and I finished at the
prices ended early March of 99, so I only tested a period of one year. I
have only done one test which took about a half hour or less to do. I tried a
safe sell and buy at zero, used a $500(5%)minimum trade, starting with
$10,000, and equity of 90%, cash of 10%.
I expected a lot of trading with those tight parameters and, as expected,
there were 31 trades-18 sells and 13 buys. The bottom line, considering I
neither adjusted for possible cash earnings(when cash was idle) nor for the
cost of commissions or margin borrowing, was as follows:
AIM Performance------------+155%
Buy & Hold Performance----+133%
I had to borrow only about five times and the maximum I had to borrow was
$4555. This was during August/September of 98 and did not need to borrow
after that as the sales paid the margin off quickly.
The next test I will do based on the results of this one is a buy safe of
zero and a sell safe at 10. I expect much better performance from AIM
because at various times throughout the period tested, the B&H caught up
with AIM because AIM sold too many times, but then when the prices dropped,
AIM caught back up. I double-checked my work, so the numbers are fairly
accurate.
More to come, but it sure takes a long time. That's OK though because I
don't mind doing it - for now anyway.
HiTech |
