I had assumed, INCORRECTLY, that the CPI would be slightly worse than expected, based on PPI. BUT NO! a rally to 1280 fits very well with a diagonal scenario, that being that the bounce up VERY often retraces to the 'b' of one lesser degree (1280-90 in this case. You can also make a nice visual that that level is the neckline of a potential H&S on the SP cash and being as such I placed my sell order there which, THIS TIME, worked. while we are both looking at ending diagonal scenarios, mine varies from yours....no matter...what does matter is that they USUALLY have a breach of the trend line on the final move down, a semi-panic spike kind of deal. Also, if you follow these ending diagonal guys, you will note that there is a preponderence of symmetry...that is, the 'A' wave down is broken into a 3 leg move, in this case..from 1340 cash,1 down, 2up(1280-90)
3 down to 1233 all forming the A...and now the B retraces into the 2(the b) of that A wave..with the C wave to come...
the A and C are so often nearly equal to each other that it is hard to ignore....since it looks like the A was from 1340 to 1233(about 100 points, cash) I am looking for 100 points more down....which gets to that old magic number of 1192 area, which also coincides with the bottom of the channel
it will be fun to watch
NOW, with your read of an ending diagonal beginning at 1420 cash and 1 ending at 1267 = 153 points....and 3 running from 1383 down to 1256= 127 points....since 3 cannot be the smallest, then 5 can not exceed 3 (127 points).....so 127 from 1344 = 1217.....if that is breached, I need say no more
in the meanwhile, lets stink it up
DS |
