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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (38454)10/23/1999 2:16:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
There seems to be a similar pattern setting up in DecisionPoint's chart on the SPX.
decisionpoint.com

<fib retracement from the lows... 1309.08 is the number.>

Yeah, that makes sense. It usually overshoots the fib number just a bit. I see it a lot when day trading. When daytrading, it seems the traders know that the logical place to place Stops is around the fib numbers so the market usually just passes the numbers on the retracements, blowing out the majority for the resumption of the trend.

Sometimes, though, the effect of taking out the stops is magnified to the degree that the trend changes. So I'm cautiously bearish. I would like to see it spiral down quickly before it gets much higher.

From DecisionPoint's chart, it looks as if the upper downsloping trendline is around 1320, which is a bit higher than I thought it would go.....I thought the SP9Z would see it's high around 1320. If the SPX motors to the trendline around 1320, the spoo will be around 1330. I think this would be lending too much psychological power to the Long side. The resulting effect would be a drive to change the dynamics of the trend.

We are, after all, traders and so we don't really care which way it ends up.....but it would be better, I think, to have the failure. The resultant selloff would be powerful, I believe (as a result of the psychological effect of the failure to change the trend), and shake a lot of apprehension out. By that I mean, once the market takes a solid blow it can base and provide a more solid foundation for future growth.
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