Hi RFH, As you will note when looking around at various income producing equities, almost all are under serious share price pressure these days. Mr. Greenspan has started to apply his pressure to raising the FED interest rates - which affect almost all other rates as well.
GSF along with a host of other long bond funds, REITs and other income producers are in the Dog House. In GSF's case that dog house is currently paying about 13% rent, however.
In my way of thinking (AIM's), the share price is down, so why not take some 4.8% Money Market Funds and move them to some 13% GSF funds? I don't think anyone believes we're headed for late '70s or early '80s interest rates any time soon, so when Mr. G feels he's done enough rate adjustment, these income producers should bounce back up again.
AIM's been saying "Buy, Buy, Buy!" recently, but in '97-'98 it had been saying "Sell, Sell, Sell!" Funny about that! I first bought GSF in 1993 and continued to buy in the '94-'95 rising interest rate environment as the price/share fell into the low $7 range. I then had inventory to sell in the $9.50 to $10 range later on for some profits.
The effect of receiving very high income and a small bit of periodic capital gain is to produce a very nice Total Return. It's not necessary to AIM GSF, but it makes it more interesting for me. With even Wall Street's Blue Chip Shares resting on Quicksand recently, GSF's monthly checks are very comforting.
The LONG BOND cycle is very long also. It will be a while before we see the far side of $8, but I'm betting good money that we will. I'm looking forward to hearing AIM start to shout "Sell, Sell, Sell!" again.
Where's the bottom? Probably not far away. The bond market is still jiddery, but the fever has broken, I believe. When the bond market starts to feel better, the stock market should quit worrying.
Best regards, Tom |
