Matt is correct in saying "as another indicator to help me predict market direction".
For now, this is how I would use the "Top Ten MP", until someone figures out if it has any real significance.
IMHO, we'll need to watch it for many more days to determine that.
Let me know if the following explanation is any better (I apologize that I tend to be obtuse in my wording)...
For the below output, the "Q weighting" is the closing price of each Top 10 NDX stocks multiplied by its respective NDX weighting for that day.
The "MP weighting" is my MP calc for each Top 10 NDX stocks multiplied by its weighting (same weights used to calc Q above).
I take the Q weight and correlate it to the closing NDX index price. Then take that ratio and apply it to the MP weighting to get a relative value for the MP. I have no idea if this has any real significance/relevance. I did it just because I could ;-)
The only takeaway at this point, as Matt suggests, is that the top 10 MP weighted value is less than the closing Quotes, so it might seem to suggest NDX is going lower into expiration. Lots of mights and ifs.
[BTW, I don't always post the changes, but I always keep the following up-to-date on a DAILY basis: SPX components, NDX components, NDX top ten, NDX top ten weightings. So when I post a number, unless I (or one of my programs :-) have made a mistake, they will always reflect the latest. This means one day's MP weighting may noticeably "jump" relative to the previous day's if one or more of the top ten changes. altho practically speaking, the relative nature of any "jump" should be minimal.]
there... that probably confused things enough.
Message 11657759
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Q weighting 4103.76 (10)
MP weighting 3872.60 (10)
which correlates to 2344 (for NDX @ 2484) |
