EGH .... GentleLASE Sales and Units ......
As recorded in our 10K, GL represented 53% of our TOTAL 1999 REVENUES.
Everything that follows is my dumb ass 2 cents .........
Total Gross Sales $ by Quarter
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...........Q1.........Q2.........Q3.........Q4........TOTAL.
------------------------------------------------------------
98.......7,822......8,522......8,617......12,063......37,024
99......10,738.....13,299.....15,844......18,707......58,588
00......16,040.....18,815*F*..XX,XXX......XX,XXX......80,000*F*
chge$....5,302......5,516*F*..........................21,412*F*
chge%......49%........41%*F*.............................37%*F*
Note:The $18,815 represents RECORD GROSS SALES.
My forecast UNDERSTATES potential gross sales $ from
PSSI and Regular USA distribution channels by about $1.0 million.
IOW - These are conservative $.
GentleLASE Gross Sales $ by Quarter
------------------------------------------------------------
...........Q1.........Q2.........Q3.........Q4........TOTAL.
------------------------------------------------------------
99.......5,691......7,048......8,397.......9,915......31,052
00.......6,801......7,978.....XX,XXX......XX,XXX............
chge$....1,110......5,516*F*..00,000......00,000............
chge%......20%........13%*F*..00,000......00,000............
GentleLASE Units by Quarter
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...........Q1.........Q2.........Q3.........Q4........TOTAL.
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99GL-#.....81........101........120.........142.........444
00GL-#.....97........114...................................
chge#......16.........13...................................
chge%......20%........13%..................................
COHR Units by Quarter
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...........Q1.........Q2.........Q3.........Q4........TOTAL.
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00LS-#....200........???...................................
EG .... This is where COHR is right now:
Units:
------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning Backlog............Q100.......100
New Orders (Bookings)........Q100.......240 ($20 million)
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Total Available to ship .....Q100.......340
Less:Shipped in Q100.........Q100.......200 ($17 million - Revenues)
-------------------------------------------
Ending Backlog...............Q100.......140 ($12 million)
===========================================
Conclusions:
(1) Business Level:
We should attempt to fix the "permanent hair reduction" DISADVANTAGE
that we have on sales calls.
COHR's gimme was 161 units. (I cannot prove this)
CLZR will either add more functionality to the GL for the same
price or lower the price to what I suspect would be $59,900.
Or both.
(COHR's asp is $85,000)
The goal in this would be to GRAB the incremental player.
(recall the USA market is only 30% of 17,000)
(2) Investor Level:
I tricked you.
If my Q2 $ lands, then on a RUN RATE BASIS we are looking at
Gross Sales of $87 million.
As I have tried to state .... there is a CRASH coming in January.
(Between us and *the* short)
Sidenote:Ironically, the biggest reason this CRASH is coming is
because the CLZR
**USA Regular Distribution channel** did so well in Q1.
It blew past my estimate (by almost $600 thousand) and has upset
their rationale.
The shorts may (1) sit or (2) sit and short more to keep our
favorable technical indicators from getting too positive and
thereby begin to show up on radar screens. In fact, they
have NO CHOICE with respect to this.
(2) is probably their best recourse right now.
And hope for a serious market correction and/or big screw-up from CLZR.
Per my P&L we will *again* beat analysts estimates (on a 35% tax
rate basis) and drop the Eribium bombshell ... new non-ablative
laser.
In this area
- we would have the market all to ourselves
- all gross margin $ fall to EBIT.
regards,
John |
