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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right?
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To: 777 Captain who wrote (208)11/4/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: PaperChase  Read Replies (1) of 259
 
Fleck owes an apology to his broke followers. Let's start with his recent prediction of an impending crash this fall. I realize the fall season isn't over but so far the polar opposite has occurred. The indexes did not trade down slightly and they did not trade sideways. Instead the Nasdaq and S&P indexes have rocketed to new record levels. Fleck has been 100% wrong on the direction of the overall market and his frustration and maybe even some of his anger has been reflected in his writings.

On the last trading day in October he proclaims the market action to be a gigantic tape painting party. Four trading days later the bull run is still unrelenting and Fleck can't seem to find the honest words to admit he also got this conspiracy notion wrong. His proclamation that a bear market is underway has also been shattered as pure myth.

Now his paranoia and blame has shifted to the fed. Noone denies Greenie is loose with the money but isn't it a leap of logic to think Greenie's policies have somehow forced fund managers to hit the buy button on only select tech stocks?

I do not believe anybody's opinion should be censured no matter how extreme. However I do not believe SI should continue to let Fleck write the daily rap as his extreme views do not represent the mainstream bear opinion.

Will the indexes retrench from this level? Sure. Market indexes go up and down. Should you be berated with doom and gloom in the Daily Rap if market indexes suddenly declined to last week's level? No. There is a difference between a normal market retrenchment and a crash.
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