Hank, this weekend's. Scroll down to the bottom. The report was written Nov 2, mentioned publicly in the Nov 15 issue of Barron's.
Regards,
Tom
November 15, 1999
Research Reports
Research Reports
How Analysts Size Up Companies
The following companies are subjects of research reports issued
recently by investment firms. Many of the reports may be purchased
from Thomson Financial Securities Data, at 888-989-8878 or
www.investext.com, or are available through Dow Jones Interactive.
Share prices at the time the report was issued and the date of the report
are in parentheses.
AlliedSignal (ALD-NYSE)
by J.P. Morgan (57 3/4, Nov. 11)
AlliedSignal remains our top near-term pick in the multi-industry universe
with excellent business quality, great management, and some of the best
earnings visibility in our group over the next two to three years. We
reiterate our Buy rating and our $85 target price on ALD.
Anheuser-Busch (BUD-NYSE)
by Credit Suisse First Boston (67 7/8, Oct. 27)
The company continues to deliver consistently on earnings, improve returns
on incremental invested capital, and show improvements on capital
efficiency. We continue to believe it will outperform the market based on
solid fundamentals coupled with strong volume and pricing momentum. We
reiterate our Strong Buy opinion and our $88 price target.
Catalina Marketing (POS-NYSE)
by B.C. Ziegler (92 1/4, Nov. 1)
We believe Catalina has the pieces in place to reach its earnings goals for
this year and achieve long-term growth in excess of 20%. We maintain our
Buy rating and our $118 price target.
Cybear (CYBA-NNM)
by Gruntal (6 3/4, Nov. 1)
Outperformer. We rate Cybear common shares 1-1 with intermediate
and long-term target prices of $20 and $26, respectively.
Delphi Automotive Systems (DPH-NYSE)
by JW Genesis (16 7/8, Nov. 3)
Historically, automobile parts suppliers have received valuations
approximately 12 times earnings, and given Delphi's unique leader position
in a changing industry, we look for the company to achieve a higher
valuation. We have set our 12-month target price at $25 or just under 13
times our estimated fiscal 2000 EPS. Buy.
DuPont (DD-NYSE)
by Securities Corp. of Iowa (61 7/8, Oct. 20)
Buy. We believe DuPont stock is undervalued and project an $85
one-year price objective based on the company's earnings, expected
growth rate, the general level of interest rates, and DuPont's size and
financial strength.
Golden West Financial (GDW-NYSE)
by Warburg Dillon Read (114 1/16, Nov. 2)
Hold. Golden West shares are trading at a premium to the thrift's peers.
Based on our outlook for sluggish revenue and earnings growth and the
company's dependence on capital management to grow EPS, we think the
company's current valuation is appropriate.
Grupo Financiero Banorte (GFNORTO-NNM)
by J.P. Morgan (1 1/2, Nov. 4)
We are initiating coverage of GFNorte with a Long-Term Buy rating and
a 12-month price target of US$1.80 (Ps20.50) per share based on a
multiple of 1.2 times our adjusted book value projection for December of
2000. GFNorte is an attractive opportunity for investors with a
longer-term investment horizon and greater acceptance of earnings
volatility. Current target implies upside of 22%.
Hilton Hotels (HLT-NYSE)
by PaineWebber (9 5/16, Nov. 9)
Neutral. We are increasing our 2000 EBITDA estimate to $1.22 billion
from $1.20 billion, but due to higher depreciation and amortization
expense, higher net interest expense and a higher tax rate assumption, we
are lowering our EPS estimate to 73 cents from 81 cents. Our 2000 EPS
estimates is 12 cents below the Street consensus.
Inacom (ICO-NYSE)
by Kirkpatrick Pettis (4 7/8, Oct. 28)
Despite disappointing third-quarter results and a subsequent 50% drop in
its stock price, we are maintaining our Buy rating. We believe the bad
news has been laid out on the table at this time.
Javelin Systems (JVLN-NNM)
by L.H. Friend Weinress Frankson & Presson (8 1/4, Oct. 29)
Strong Buy. Our target price is $23 based on a P/E ratio equal to the
growth rate and 2001 earnings.
MeriStar Hotels & Resorts (MMH-NYSE)
by Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown (2 3/16, Oct. 25)
We maintain our Buy investment rating on MeriStar Hotels & Resorts
stock, with a target price of $4, 13.3 times our 2000 EPS estimate of 30
cents. The company currently trades at just 9.5 times our 1999 EPS
estimate of 23 cents.
Tables: New Coverage | Upgrades and Downgrades
New Era of Networks (NEON-NNM)
by Credit Suisse First Boston (43, Nov. 15)
We are raising our rating from Hold to Buy based on significant
improvement in fundamentals-execution, products, third-party
endorsements and financial model.
Oak Industries (OAK-NYSE)
by Josephthal (41 5/16, Nov. 3)
Reiterating Buy rating; Raising 12-month target to $52.
Pilgrim's Pride (CHX-NYSE)
by George K. Baum (6 1/4, Oct. 25)
We are raising our recommendation from Neutral to Buy with a 12-month
price target of $11 for the Class B shares. We believe the company looks
especially attractive relative to the other poultry companies for the long
term.
Questar (STR-NYSE)
by Petrie Parkman (17 7/8, Oct. 26)
Known for its low-risk, profitable growth, Questar E&P now has a new
project that could nearly double the company's proved reserves and
production at a time of strong North American demand growth.
SBC Communications (SBC-NYSE)
by Warburg Dillon Read (48 1/5, Oct. 28)
While we believe that the growth initiatives undertaken by management will
initially be dilutive to EPS, it will help set the stage for accelerated growth
in 2001 and beyond driven by doubledigit revenue growth and 15%+ EPS
growth. We reiterate our Buy rating and 12-month price target of
$60-$65.
Schwab (SCH-NYSE)
by Credit Suisse First Boston (42, Nov. 8)
Hold. At $42, the stock is trading at 64.6 times our [earnings] estimate of
65 cents per share for 2000 and at 51.8 times the consensus of 81 cents,
leading to our advice for investors to be cautious despite our high regard
for the company and its prospects.
Sherwin-Williams (SHW-NYSE)
by McDonald (22 1/5, Oct. 29)
Aggressive Buy. We have raised our fiscal '99 estimate to $1.77 to
account for the strengths of third-quarter EPS. We remain at $1.97 for
next year. We reiterate our aggressive Purchase recommendation with an
upside price target of $39.
SoftNet Systems (SOFN-NNM)
by Gilford (22 1/10, Nov. 2)
With seemingly minimal downside and a two-to three-year potential of at
least fourfold, we rate the shares a Maximum Buy.
Station Casinos (STN-NYSE)
by Seidler (24 3/4, Oct. 26)
The stock is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.1 times our
1999 estimated EBITDA of $235.0 million and 7.5 times our 2000
estimated EBITDA of $253.0 million. Based on a target EV/EBITDA
multiple of 8.0 times, our 2000 price target is $29 and we are maintaining
our Strong Buy rating.
Tiffany (TIF-NYSE)
by U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray (57 1/8, Oct. 29)
We recognize that few companies can claim a brand as well recognized
and respected as Tiffany & Co. However, with the exception of one year
when lower earnings caused a higher multiple, the stock has not traded
higher than 28 times current earnings during the past 10 years, and we
think the stock is already fairly valued. Consequently, we think investors
can expect a market-type return from the stock-hence our Neutral
recommendation.
Time Warner (TWX-NYSE)
by Seidler (67 1/4, Nov. 1)
We believe Time Warner, with its mix of premier cable networks, cable
systems, film units and music labels, is extremely well poised to exploit its
existing creative assets in the rapidly expanding digital and broadband
multimedia universe. We continue to rate the stock Strong Buy for growth
and asset investors and maintain our 2000 price target of $86.
Tyco International (TYC-NYSE)
by Credit Suisse First Boston (35 13/16, Nov. 2)
Strong Buy. We think people who are selling or not buying the stock at
these levels will be kicking themselves in six months.
Ultimate Electronics (ULTE-NNM)
by USBancorp (17 3/16, Nov. 4)
Buy. On a valuation basis, the stock appears cheap. It is trading at just
15.9 times forward earnings versus the consumer electronics average of 24
times earnings. On a price to sales basis, Ultimate is trading at just .42
times sales versus the group average of .64 times. On a relative P/E basis,
Ultimate is trading at just 80% of the market multiple, well below its
historical range. We believe that as management continues to deliver strong
results, the stock will trade more in line with the industry, giving investors
an above market return.
Warner Lambert (WLA-NYSE)
by J.P. Morgan (90, Nov. 4)
Buy. Relative to the merger with American Home Products, we value the
company at $93 today (11/5) with a 12-month target of $109. Until and
unless the potential bidding process with Pfizer moves the share price
above this range, we see little downside and meaningful upside for Warner
Lambert.
Waters (WAT-NYSE)
by Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown (63 1/8, Oct. 26)
We are reiterating our Strong Buy investment rating on Waters. Our
12-month price target is $75.
ZixIt (ZIXI-NNM)
by Gilford (42 1/2, Nov. 2)
We recommend Sell in trading accounts. While still below our July 27
Strong Buy recommendation at 46, ZIXI shares become increasingly
vulnerable as we approach 12/31/99 without major ZixCharge partnership
announcements.
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