Kevin: Welcome to this thread!
You're right on the mark, Curlew has about 20 million shares outstanding. I would guess that management and insiders are in for about 800,000 - 1,000,000, but it could be quite a bit higher since it has been so cheap with drilling just around the corner. I think you're right in terms of trading strategy. If the first zone has a strong whiff of gas, these stocks should take off. Based on former resistance levels, I'd put CWQ at around C$0.60 - C$0.70 on such an event. If they continue to get strong gas indications all the way through 4 zones to total depth, I would think the stock could break a dollar quite easily. The real proof of these plays though is completion. If completed as a producer, the remaining acreage should be viable too, so we could start seeing something on the order of $2 - $3 Can. All four wells producing 5MM - 20MM cubic feet per day, at gas prices ranging from $2 - $5 per MCF, could generate sufficient cash flow to propel the stock to between $10 & $20 Can. While this looks fairly extreme on the surface, we have to remember that CWQ ends up with over 40% of the play after payout. Also, the actual cash operating cost is estimated at $0.05/MCF, so the profit margin is potentially huge. While this is a Curlew thread, don't forget about MWR, which has 10.8 million shares out and 15% after payout. CWQ should trade at about a 40% premium on Bacon Island, so is presently the best public value.
Thanks for your interest!! |
