Thanx to 100, UF, LB and MB for the counterweight to my enthusiasm in Exodus.......
When I posted my portfolio last month, I think EXDS comprised < 1%.
EXDS is a godzilla play (mentioned in RFM in godzilla chapter), and not even a godzilla candidate. I think it will do well as a pure-play web hoster in Y2K because:
1. post Y2K fears,
2. raging e-commerce
3. dominant in its category
4. more than double the IDC sq. footage
5. adding to sales force by 1/3
6. added 25% of present customers just in last qtr.
7. I think David Levy from H & Q has grossly underestimated revenues next year, at $630 million.
8. European focus on Internet access; EXDS in London now, and adding to IDCs in Amsterdam, Paris and elsewhere.
9. Asian recovery; EXDS in Japan now.
The only impediment I see for next year is political or military upheaval with Red China.
I took Mike Buckley's advice and reconstructed conservative and aggressive estimates of EXDS revenues in FY2000, as stated below. Interested in the thread's comments.
The original estimates:
Message 12281266
New range of revenue estimates:
FY 2000 low, intermediate and high estimates
Assuming conservative 4Q-'99 at 40% Sequential Growth (SG) = revs of $94.6 million;
SG in FY 2000 for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4; Annual Revs,
@ 40% SG: 132.5, 185.5, 259.7, 363.6; $941.3
@ 45% SG: 137.2, 198.9, 288.4, 418.2; $1042.7
@ 50% SG: 141.3, 212, 317.9, 476.9; $1148.1
Analysts say they would think this company is fairly valued at a PSR of 25;
PSR = 25 = Market cap/revenues = price X # shares/revenues = 25 x revenues/# shares = 25 x Revs./170 =
Estimated FY 2000 price:
@ 40% SG = $138; @ 45% SG = $153; @ 50% SG = $169;
Worst case scenario, @ PSR 20, & 40% SG = $111/share;
Present price, about $84/share.
I think it will very likely double over the next 12 months.
I think it would be an outrageous buy during a dip into the low $70s.
Apollo@pseudoanalyst.com |
