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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: fuzzymath who wrote (9593)12/17/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (1) of 18928
 
Hi FM, The Idiot Wave (IW) is an assistant that I use to judge the market risk relative to the business model we commonly use here for managing our investments (AIM). The direct link to the graphs and explanation is at:
execpc.com

Four components are combined and scaled to give an Equity/Cash ratio that is appropriate for the AIM model. I update it only once per week as AIM's a slow motion affair. It has a rather broad range over the years of data that I've accumulated. Starting in 1982 through the present, each component wanders around according to its own 'mood'. However, under times of extreme market stress all four pieces of the puzzle line up and tend to give a unanimous signal (either bullish or bearish).

Not intended as a "switching" measure, the IW assumes long term investing using the AIM method. However, AIM's strategy is to trade around a core value, capping equity exposure in a rising market and using the cash reserve to add to positions when prices are depressed. It allows one to become 100% invested (even higher if one's personality allows margin borrowing) but never takes an account to the extreme of being 100% CASH.

Hope this helps a bit. Thanks for bringing some new thoughts to the BB.

Best regards, Tom
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