I'm a little worried that trading may have impaired
my performance, and that I should have just let my 1/1/99
choices ride. Here were those picks again, and the quotes
off of my 12/31/98 statement:
ARIA 1.69....close today near $3?
ARIAW 0.06...40-50 cents now.
BTRN 2.50....more than tripled
CNSI 0.72....still under a buck
CTIC 3.00....a bit more than doubled
CTII 1.47...not much change, down a bit I think
NTII 0.53...3 now
SIBI 4.75...went out around 8 right?
TGEN 1.31...4 now
GZTC was the other pick, which I never actually owned
this past year--anybody have the price from the close
of trading 1998? Trades now around 12...eyeballing
the chart looks like it started the year around $6
At the moment my account is at +180%, but that will
move down ten percent or so if my glob of warrants
ticks back down to forty cents. I'm going to wince
if no trades would have done better--and just eyeballing
it, might be. I'll come back and fix this post with
the final quotes from 1999 when I've had a few drinks
late tonight, penalty for churning might be high,
which I've suspected all along, but sobering to do
the final numbers.
Also...speaking of churning, note how only one of my
picks survived into summer...was looking at my positions
in August--
37000 ARIA at a buck a share
70000 ARIAW at 1/16th
2000 GLGC near $4
2000 HYSQ near $4
If for some reason I'd not been able to trade through
the fall--that account would be another 50% higher than
where I am now. Now what does that say about churning--
it's okay if it happens to put you into the right
stocks--but you're likely to get shook out just as
fast as you got in, so you can never get whopper
returns. On the other hand, I look at my current
holdings, and it isn't half as risky as what
I'd owned six months ago. Some of the same names,
but much more reasonably sized positions--no one
pick will take me out of the game, although still
top heavy into Ariad etc.
Mind games.
I'm going to have to do a New Years Resolution
about my trading habit--etrade's little junkie.
May even have to start a thread "Look Ma, No Trades".
This hobby is not productive if it just as likely
to take you out of stocks that will run up as put
you in.
Anybody else thinking of going cold turkey? |
