Bowling Alleys and Tornadoes: G&K Hunting Grounds Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bowling Alleys and Tornadoes: G&K Hunting Grounds

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To: Eric L who wrote (109)	1/10/2000 6:31:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (2) of 153

How about a brief comment from you of where you think RMBS is at. I was about to take a starter position at about the time of the earthquake. I believe the current action in RMBS is a short squeeze. In Dec, I predicted it would happen in early Jan. There is a huge short position there. I expected some short profit taking after the first of the year. That seems to be happening. RMBS has crossed the chasm in my mind...rdram PCs are in the market...The tornado is a different story. This is what has changed. There should be 11 DRAM Mfrs producing RDRAM...there are 4. This has kept prices exorbitant. Dell is charging almost $1000 for a 128MB RDRAM module. Toshiba and Sony spent $1 billion on an RDRAM production facility last year, yet I hear Toshiba is trying to buy RDRAM...Did they fail to get sufficient lines in production. I am suspicious that all may not be well with that production. Micron sampled RDRAM months ago...obviously it was not approved...I recently read that they may sample again this quarter. The three slot motherboard must be worked out to enable reasonable upgrade costs...Upgradeability was to be a key feature of RMBS. presently to go from 256 to 512 MB, you have to throw away the the two 128's (@ $1000 EACH !!!) and add two 256s... I am watching for several things to indicate windy conditions... A 3 slot mobo from INTC. More RDRAM production from more Mfrs, especially MU. MU has more DRAM production capacity than Samsung. A firmer stance by INTC on RDRAM chipsets. Intel is veering way off the original course set for RMBS. I expect to see INTC chipsets for RMBS competitor...DDRDRAM and PC133...six months ago INTC said that would never happen. It is questionable now whether RMBS gets into portables. Six months ago INTC said RMBS would be the only memory supported in the new portable chipsets. I would like to see an RDRAM portable chipset from INTC. Sony PII, Nintendo 64, and SUNW's majc may make RMBS a good investment...For tornadic winds RMBS needs to conquer the PC market. I do not see signs of that right now. RMBS' ace-in-the-hole may be the ability to use their technology to solve other bandwidth problems in communications devices. The CEO indicated they may sample products this year for design into consumer products 2-3 years out. was that brief enough? unclewest :o)

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