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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: fuzzymath who wrote (9958)1/12/2000 7:36:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (1) of 18928
 
Hi Kevin, I haven't put the data in for the Idiot Wave yet this week, but will have it by day's end. The raw data says risk is still high. So, your caution as a st trader is justified. Last week the IW ticked upward to 51% Cash Reserve indicated for individual stock AIM accounts. That pretty well tells the story.

With AIM, the rising Cash pile during high risk market events is the cushion on which we depend when things turn ugly. Lucky for investors that Bulls hang around and graze while Bears just run out, maul us and disappear into the woods again.

2000 may turn out to be a year where stock selection is more important that where the indexes go. 1999 left huge numbers of stocks at break even or losses while a few led the charge that carried the averages up. As a general plan I'm not changing the overall theme of my investments. It's going to stay focused on telecomm, internet infrastructure, bonds on the cheap, biotech and the same commitment to energy as last year.

Interesting to note that energy related issues in my account led 1999 in the early going. However they fell as a percent of total value as the year progressed as the rest of the account moved on and energy treaded water.

Best regards, Tom
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