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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

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Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Greg S. who wrote (850)	1/27/2000 12:48:00 AM
From: Michael G. Potter	Read Replies (1) of 10713

Greg, Go onto Usenet to the blackjack news group. There's a bunch of Phd.'s in math there. Post the above post and step back <grin>. Blackjack odds change with the number of cards played depending on the exact cards played. The math of runs is interesting and everything, but each hand depends on the cards previously played, not if the dealer or the players won. I think the same applies to investing. The stats look nice, but each coin flip is still 50/50. Even if the last 500 have been heads, it is still 50/50 that the next coin flip will be heads. Now the odds of having a run of 501 in a row are really, really small, but it doesn't matter. I think that psychology has more bearing on short-term stock movements than statistics. Michael

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