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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing
PICK 52.34+1.6%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: Michael G. Potter who wrote (845)2/18/2000 2:17:00 AM
From: Stuart C Hall  Read Replies (3) of 10713
 
I got into a heated debate today with a coworker who felt he could do better at Vegas with 50k than I could in the market over a one year period.

I told him go to Vegas and bet to your heart's content. Give me 50k, a year's time and I'll discount my GAINS (LOSSES inconceivable!) by the Time Value of Money (TVM) and we'll see who does better.

Please don't use coin flips when calculating VEGAS GAMBLING risk vs. stocks. I don't care if you get Heads 100 times in a row. Each coin flip is independent of the previous coin flip. 50/50 has no knowledge of previous performance. It's just not relevant. I can flip a coin and the coin has no memory of what happend on the previous flip. Mathemiticians be damned. It's just not relevant on the next flip. I challenge any mathemitician to show me how a previous event affects the FUTURE outcome of a 50/50 event in a one time trial.

As far as blackjack, regardless of your prowess in counting cards, as someone who has a degree in Psychology who spent most of his work concentrating on Social Psychology, I can confidently assert that one thing remains true in a gambling environment.

The more you win, the more conservative your bets become. The more you lose, the more you're willing to risk. I don't gamble because I know the house has the edge, but the next time you're at a BJ table, track your bets. If you win, you'll bet less. As you lose, you'll become a maniac trying to recoup your loss. Bet on it. :-)

Regards,
Stuart
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