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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote ()	2/23/2000 7:52:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 18928

This is the kind of story that I love. As recently as mid-December, Paging Networks was listed as the Worst Performer of all stocks followed by Value Line in their 1700 stock index. It was down something like 80% in just 13 weeks. It had been at or near the bottom of the list for several weeks. I believe I saw a price of $0-11/16 as a low, but would have to check to see just how far down it went. Guess what stock is at the very top of Value Line's Best Performers list this week? You guessed it, Paging Networks! It's now showing a 13 week gain of about 285%! siliconinvestor.com Now don't get me wrong, I'm not recommending this stock; I don't know anything about the company or even what they make. It's just that over the years I've seen this sort of switching happen many times. It's not always from being the worst of the Worst to being the best of the Best, but many times stocks that are on the Worst list one quarter are on the Best list a quarter or two later. It has lots to do with lemmings. Sometimes stocks on the Worst list deserve to be there! However, if as now, we have nearly 10 stocks all from the same sector on the Worst list, it screams "Sector Rotation" to me. Wall Street has been playing Musical Chairs again and the Specialty Retail stores have been left without a place to sit. It so happens that this week's Value Line also updates the Retailers, so you can get fresh information on anything from Ann Taylor to Lands's End. If you turn to the first page of that section, Value Line always shows you the relative strength of that sector and talks about its possibilities. Right now the RS is as bad as I've ever seen it. What better time to go "shopping" for a good retail stock to add to your overall portfolio. Sure enough, I'm willing to bet a new flannel shirt from Land's End that there will be some Specialty Retail stocks on the Best Performers list some time later this year. The pendulum has just gone too far in the "worst" direction. Some years ago Bill Riedeman had challenged me to build a data base of stocks that frequent both the best and worst list. I've never had the time to do so. You'll just have to take it at my word that many of the same stocks have appeared on both lists at various times - just like Paging Networks. Best regards, Tom

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