Repeating posting on Raging Bull:
From a PaineWebber "Market Commentary" (April 3: "New Metrics: Going, Going, Gone?"). I won't attempt to explain this entire piece (somewhat confusing, comparing Old Old Industrials, Old New Industrials, and New New Industrials and their relative valuations)...
The relevant part for WCOM investors is a table at the end showing "Eight Old New Industrials" in which MCI Worldcom is given a PaineWebber Buy rating and #1 EVM Rank (Equity Valuation Model: these rankings go from 1 to 500. 1 is most attractive. 500 is least attractive. Source: PaineWebber). Other EVM rankings include: MSFT (11); MOT (15); LU (43); HWP (66); DELL (68); IBM (69) CSCO (74). All these stocks were rated "Buys" except HWP ("Attractive").
The rationale for WCOM's #1 EVM rank: projected EPS of $1.90 in 2000 and $2.75 in 2001 (and Estimated Secular Growth of 27%). Based on a $45.56 price (April 3), this suggests a P/E vs. 2001 estimated earnings of 16.5X.
In contrast or comparison, the S&P 500 index has a 24.7X P/E vs. 2001 earnings against a estimated secular growth of 7% (this actually reflects how over-valued the S&P is).
WCOM's 16.5X P/E (vs. 2001 estimated earnings) compares with MSFT at 47, MOT at 30.5, LU at 36, HWP at 33, Dell at 55, IBM at 25, and CSCO at 110.5. The only company with a higher estimated secular growth was CSCO at 28% (vs. WCOM's 27%). Dell was also at 27%.
Net-Net: very bullish for WCOM long term.
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy) |
