In voice, yes, there will continue to be churn and competition, low top-line growth, and no bottom-line growth. WCOM seems to be doing better than AT&T in both old and new businesses. Growth in data and wireless and international business for WCOM is doing very well.
And I don't think that growth is going to be dependant on the dot.coms. It will be "old economy" companies, the Fords and GEs and steel companies and farmers, really just about everyone, who wants to be able to communicate anywhere to anywhere, data and video, in ever-increasing amounts. Trucking companies are putting in automated systems, to track in real-time the position of every container on every truck, train, and ship anywhere on the planet. Look at any industry, and you see similar things happening. All of which require more communications capacity. If investors are expecting a coming glut in telecom capacity, then it's time to buy.
For 30 years, many investors have been predicting an immanent glut in computer processing capacity. It may be finally happening. I think it'll take that long for your glut in telecom capacity to appear. |
