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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector

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To: kolo55 who wrote ()5/5/2000 10:26:00 AM
From: Marsha Landau   of 2542
 
SLR is Merrill Lynch "Focus 1 Stock"

12 Month Price Objective: $60
Estimates (Aug) 1999A 2000E 2001E
EPS: $0.61 $0.82-0.86 $1.12-1.20
P/E: 57.0x 41.4x 30.0x
EPS Change (YoY): 37.7% 35.7%
Consensus EPS: $0.85 $1.13
(First Call: 13-Apr-2000)
Q3 EPS (May): $0.16 $0.20
Cash Flow/Share: $0.92 $1.26 $1.61
Price/Cash Flow: 37.8x 20.9x 21.6x
...
Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 30.0%
...
Investment Highlights:
- We are adding Solectron to our Focus 1 list.
- Based on a P/E multiple of 52X our new F2001
EPS estimate of $1.16, our 12-month price
objective is $60.
Fundamental Highlights:
- Solectron remains a core technology holding
and the stock's almost 30% decline from its
high in early April provides investors with an
attractive buying opportunity.
- We think investors have overreacted to
Solectron's conference call earlier this week
that indicated the component environment
and the delay in closing the Nortel asset
acquisition could affect Q3:2000 (May) results.
- We believe the EMS industry is the second-fastest
growing industry in the world (next to
the Internet), and Solectron's global
manufacturing infrastructure and financial
strength is truly a competitive advantage that
should help the company gain market share in
years to come.
- Taking into account the $2 billion convertible,
we are maintaining our F2000 (May) EPS
estimate of $0.84 (+36%) and increasing our
F2001 EPS estimate by $0.02 to $1.16 (+39%).
...
...
In our opinion, Solectron is the most financially sound EMS
provider in the world with about $1.5 billion of cash on its
balance sheet (excluding the recent $2 billion LYON TM
offering). This positions Solectron to capitalize on the fertile OEM asset divestiture environment. For example, Solectron's preemptive move to purchase the entire second tranche of Nortel facilities for $900 million provided the company with a $10 billion four-year outsourcing agreement. Other large OEM asset purchase opportunities with companies such as Lucent Technologies await the industry and the well financed EMS providers such as Solectron are best positioned to capture some of this business.
...
The changing dynamics of the EMS industry continue to favor
MEGA-EMS Providers such as Solectron that have a global
manufacturing infrastructure, top-tier customer relationships and strong financials. Historically, Solectron has sold at a premium valuation to its competitors but trades at a 5% discount today.
We continue to think that Solectron deserves a premium
valuation to our EMS Universe and more in-line with some of
the marquee technology OEMs (74x C2000E EPS) in our
OEM Tech Barometer (58x C2000E EPS). Based on a P/E
multiple of 52X F2001 EPS estimate of $1.16, our 12-month
price objective is $60.
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