Ian, some three years ago, I was accused of similar overpessimism, when I suggested on the CYMI thread (when it was about $25 to $30) that in a bottom of the cycle CYMI could reach $13/share, it turned out that I was too optimistic and it reach a low well under half that value. I think that you are overestimating the rapidity of the launch of the 300 mm technology, the 200 mm technology took a good five years to overtake the 150 mm from the time the first 300 production fab was launched (as far as I know, we still do not have a single 300 mm wafer fab in production, only few test beds here and there), so the 300 mm may be responsible for the next cycle, not this one , IMHO.
You got to face the fact that the most optimistic estimates of total chip shipments this year are under $200 B and 2001 may see an absolute best case of $230 B, both numbers too small to support much higher shipping rate of semi equip than the current monthly booking of $2.7 B. Within a quarter or two, the shipping rate will reach the current booking rate and that will be the peak, IMHO.
Look at it in another way, if indeed another $40 B of wafer fabs are going to come on line in the next twelve months, how far will you be from overcapacity?
Zeev |
