Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

An SI Board Since February 2000

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
276	46	0

Emcee: Pink Minion	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Compact

As an ex-Sucker (hopefully), I bought heavily into this sector in 1995 and believe this was
THE MARKET TOP of the last cycle.

This thread is to discuss the tell-tale signs of a market and industry top. After the Year 2000 peak, the top signs are:

1. When the Book-to-Bill is > 1.35 - start lightening up

2. When KLIC warns of push-outs - SELL

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Here are the MSI numbers (million square inches) of wafer real estate- #reply-13632212 broken out by wafer size.

Thanks to Gottfried. Charts Galore: #reply-13918795
Chip Revenues spent on Equipment: infras.com

Sister Thread Subject 5416

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
276	ex-D, adding the SIA ww semiconductor shipments reported so far for 2000, I get	Gottfried	-	11/7/2000
275	Forecasts are usually wrong. The SIA also released its annu	Pink Minion	-	11/7/2000
274	Wayne, often the first year of a new Pres is associated with market declines. T	Zeev Hed	-	11/2/2000
273	Zeev, Thanks for your thoughts. Why are you expecting a decline at the end of	A. Wayne	-	11/2/2000
272	As I have mentioned on this thread in mid month, I think that there is a pretty	Zeev Hed	-	11/1/2000
271	Zeev, The market's starting to look interesting again, don't you think?	A. Wayne	-	11/1/2000
270	I suppose the singing I hear is a signal to sell?<g> What a difference a	The Ox	-	10/19/2000
269	Zeev, my feeling is that the danger of the ME situation totally spinning out of	WTSherman	-	10/12/2000
268	zeev: Your apocalyptic fantasies are too vivid..... Imagine instead that the p	James Calladine	-	10/12/2000
267	It sure looks like a monkey wrench, but why is more volume going into stock that	Zeev Hed	-	10/12/2000
266	Dow @ 10K naz @ 3107...Somebody breathe...(EOM)	Bruce A. Thompson	-	10/12/2000
265	that's a big monkey wrench from the middle east .... tech is trying hard, ho	steve susko	-	10/12/2000
264	We'll need the luck, but I see some interesting divergences in the market, w	Zeev Hed	-	10/12/2000
263	ZH - I traded AMAT pretty successfully yesterday - it only briefly touched my	Terry D	-	10/12/2000
262	I have VECO, CYMI, BRKS and LRCX. All very recent buys. I just got stopped out o	Zeev Hed	-	10/12/2000
261	What's on your buy list? Thanks - t d	Terry D	-	10/12/2000
260	Ex, my TA is ringing a bell, the low is within shouting distance, if not already	Zeev Hed	-	10/11/2000
259	I wish I had listened to that "little voice" and sold out on everythin	Pink Minion	-	10/11/2000
258	I too followed Brinkers advice and am sitting on "tons" of cash.....lo	rsie	-	10/11/2000
257	No, I had been taking money off the table as it went up, because I was going int	Math Junkie	-	10/11/2000
256	Richard, did you "get out at the top"? Rich just curious.....	rsie	-	10/11/2000
255	Ex, I see that you started this thread on February 23, less than two months befo	Math Junkie	-	10/11/2000
254	The correct link is appliedmaterials.com	Pink Minion	-	9/23/2000
253	VERY INSTRUCTIVE (from the AMAT thread) <<<A must read for anyone inves	James Calladine	-	9/23/2000
252	Insider Trading (August) Semiconductor Business News	Pink Minion	-	9/21/2000

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