Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (126)	5/28/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) of 276

Zeev, you may well be right about me being overly optimistic. RE 300mm: the Infineon testbed has had yields allowing better productivity than 200mm for about a year now. However, I agree that the ramp to full volume production by most of the leaders is not going to happen within the next 2 years. Yet the money will still be spent on Capital Equipment even though an immediate return isn't expected for each chipmakers first 300mm fab. While the capacity builds, technology moves and 300mm migration is underway, I wouldn't be surprised to see Capital equipment spending trend well above the norm for a year or 2. And as I mentioned in an early note [to you???], many chipmakers still have empty shells just sitting there waiting for equipment. This should permit a higher percentage of CapEx to go directly to the Equipment companies. All the same, if there's a recession or some other event that allows capacity to catch up with or surpass chip demand prior to 300mm migration, it's conceivable that we've already seen the cycle highs. I doubt it, but it's conceivable. And on that cheery note, it's time for bed. Enjoy your weekend, Ian.

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