Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Gottfried who wrote (134)	5/28/2000 10:05:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 276

Gottfried, I am trying to be "generous", and Semiconductor International claims that 50% of the new "declared Fabs" are going to be 300 mm. Since it takes a good two years from "announcement" to full operation of a fab, assuming that about 10 such fabs have been announced so far, the best we can expect in 2002 is about 500 MM square inches of 300 mm produced. Much more than the forecasts of 50 MM SI posted by "fatboy". It is the number you get assuming 10 fabs operating at an average of 40,000 wafer starts per month. Of course, within a very short time at this rate, they will not be doing anything but 300 mm (G). The total SI real estate by 2002 is expected to reach about 4 BSI, and thus assuming ten fabs of that size will get us to 12.5% of the market, quite speedy. And Ian claims I am a pessimist (VBG). Zeev Zeev

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