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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.44+1.6%Nov 10 4:00 PM EST
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To: Techplayer who wrote (52535)5/30/2000 1:33:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Has the Naz bottomed?

My last 1% P&F chart was here Message 13657604. The current chart looks like:

5060.73   X
5010.63   X O
4961.02   X O
4911.90   X O
4863.26   X O
4815.11   X O
4767.44 O X O
4720.24 O X O
4673.50 O X O
4627.23 O X O
4581.42 O X O X
4536.05 O X O X O
4491.14 O   O X O
4446.68     O X O X
4402.65     O X O X O
4359.06     O   O X O
4315.90         O X O
4273.17         O X O
4230.86         4 X O
4188.97         O X O
4147.50         O X O
4106.43         O X O
4065.77         O X O
4025.52         O X O
3985.66         O X O         * <Revised Bearish R/L
3946.20         O X O         5 *
3907.13         O X O         X O *
3868.44         O X O         X O   *
3830.14         O X O X       X O     *
3792.22         O X O X O     X O X     *
3754.67         O X O X O X   X O X O     *
3717.50         O X O X O X O X O X O     X *
3680.69         O   O X O X O X O X O     X O *
3644.25             O X O X O X O X O     X O   *
3608.17             O X O X O X O   O X   X O     *
3572.44             O X O X O X     O X O X O
3537.07             O X O X O       O X O X O
3502.05             O X O X *       O X O X O
3467.38             O X O X   *     O X O   O
3433.05             O X O X     *   O X     O
3399.06             O X O X       * O       O
3365.40             O X O           *       O X
3332.08             O X *                   O X O
3299.09             O X   *                 O X O
3266.43             O X     *               O X O
3234.09             O         *             O X O
3202.07                         *           O X O
3170.36                           *         O X O
3138.97       Bearish Support Lie > *       O X     +
3107.89                               *     O X   +
3077.12                                 *   O X +
3046.66                                   * O +
3016.49                                     *

The original bearish price objective from the top at 5060.73 was hit dead-on. Then, a small rally in May (the column with the 5 at the top) created a new bearish price objective of 3016, which has basically been hit. Now, with the new buy signal that was generated and toped out at 3717.50 and the subsequent 20 column of O's straight down, gives us a bearish price objective of 2650 and then 2172.

So -- We've had two different sets of bearish price objectives met. Historically, after the first two sets of counts from a major bottom or high, subsequent counts become suspect (unless you get a great deal of sideways movement). Look how the Bearish Support Line held at 3399.06 and the one below that held at the low of 3046.66

My intermediate trends are determined by Revised Bullish Support Lines and Revised Bearish Resistance Lines. This chart is currently short term bearish (it's on a sell signal) and intermediate term bearish, with the Revised Bearish Resistance Line being in control. (It's the one that starts at 3946.2) If/when a column of X's can penetrate the referenced Bearish Resistance Line, then I would say a spring/summer Naz rally is underway. If it doesn't -- then I wouldn't<g>.

Take care,

Eric
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