Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (159)	5/30/2000 10:25:00 AM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (2) of 276

<Should you find ex-d's posts of value, feel free to read them and IGNORE mine< Ian, I'm just saying that we shouldn't try to inhibit people from posting these type of opinions. I don't think that anyone on this board can really KNOW whether the current b>b ratio includes a substantial number of double bookings or not. I don't think that there's any question that the market believes that the semi-equip group is the most cyclical of all the tech's. Moreover, given the dramatic drops that many of these company's have seen in the past six weeks(much greater percentage than the semi's themselves) there is considerable sentiment on the street that the peak of the order cycle has been reached or will be reached soon. As Zeev has pointed out its hard to believe that the current order rate can be sustained for an extended period, because it represents such a high % of semi revenues. From what I can tell there's two legitimate theories as to what' going on. The first is that this is a repeat of what happened the last time around(ex-D's); the other is that this is a peak, but, that the falloff will not be dramatic because part of this is a makeup for the extended period of very low investments by the semi's and that there is a much broader base of demand for semi's this time around. I'm inclined to the later and think the cycle could actually last into 2002, but, much has to do with interest rates and whether or not they retreat over the second half of this year. At any rate, why not hear everybody's perspectives on this?

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