I don't think that anyone on this board can really KNOW whether the current b>b ratio includes a substantial number of double bookings or not.
...and certainly not a disgruntled ex-employee.
During earnings season, I listened to more than 2 dozen earnings conference calls. Analysts attempted to identify whether or not double bookings were happening. Most companies have less than 2 quarters backlog; are able to provide delivery slots as requested by the customer; and is generally able to accomodate earlier delivery schedules than originally booked should a customer's plans change.
To disregard these statements; and believe something based on no evidence, IMO, is insanity. (Should I form a stronger opinion, I'll state it. ;-))
As Zeev has pointed out its hard to believe that the current order rate can be sustained for an extended period, because it represents such a high % of semi revenues.
Revenues are growing. Published revenues are for about 3-5 months ago. Bookings are for 3-5 months in the future. For the mathematically challenged, this means the numerator is too large and the denominator too small and the resulting percentage calculation is just flat out wrong.
The key assumption behind that statement is that the predicted capacity shortage will occur and last for the predicted duration. The result will be higher ASPs, higher revenues, higher profits and a sustainable higher level of investment.
As the net gets rolled out to the rest of the world from its North American stronghold, not only will a huge growth in the number of chips be required for that rollout, but also for all the network "appliances" that become practical as a result - be it MP3 players, net enabled cell phones, or many not yet invented / available devices.
I see this upleg being on the long side of 3-4 years, not the short side; and certainly not at an end after 1 year.
At any rate, why not hear everybody's perspectives on this?
Anyone is free to post whatever they so choose. However, afer reading a bunch of nonsense based on no current information whatsoever, I will personally choose to ignore future posts from such an individual. It's of no value to me; and my time does have value for me. It's as simple as that. |
