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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (127)5/31/2000 10:35:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (1) of 276
 
>>While the capacity builds, technology moves and 300mm migration is underway, I wouldn't be surprised to see Capital equipment spending trend
well above the norm for a year or 2.<<

Well.... I think it's a little more complicated than that. The Taiwanese turned the spigot on full at the first sign that the market was improving, but are now saying that they won't continue to spend at that level. Which I think is a good thing because it reduces the overcapacity risk.

>> And as I mentioned in an early note [to you???], many chipmakers still have empty shells just sitting there waiting for equipment. This should
permit a higher percentage of CapEx to go directly to the Equipment companies.<<

That was true in 1999. My understanding is that most of the shells have been filled, and most 2000 (especially late 2000) equipment buys are for new cleanroom space (both greenfields and expansions).

Katherine
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