Allan, I do take CDG projections with large grains of salt. For example, they have consistently underestimated CDMA uptake and my amazingly accurate [6 significant figure] projections have been better. Message 13781120
I did bow to somewhat slower demand than I expected this year and [perhaps mistakenly] reduced Dec 2000 totals to 100 million from 122 million. The CDG and Irwin Jacobs thought perhaps as many as 70m but they were way too conservative.
I save most salt for the FUD-masters in the VW40 camp. For years and years and years, nearly a decade now, they have spread FUD [and outright falsehoods] from one end of the planet to the other [not that the planet has ends, but you know what I mean].
I compared total CDMA with GSM and ignored TDMA because the battle has always been GSM vs CDMA. I'm interested in when CDMA handset sales per month exceed GSM sales per month. That point will be mid 2002 based on CDG figures. Perhaps earlier with the imminent rollout of 1X and HDR. GPRS will be a bit of a dead duck due to poor performance and because of high spectrum consumption and overall higher costs. TDMA is like analogue; just another legacy system which will fizzle sooner rather than later. GSM has been the big target for CDMA to defeat.
On the IPR, yes, the 'pool' business means those outside will have to pay maybe 15%, same as newcomers to GSM pay about 15% whereas those in the club just do a no-fee swap of royalties.
But, is IDCC intellectual property really as valuable as Ericsson's and how about Nokia and the others? Will they agree to a 6 Musketeers 'all for one and one for all' system or will their greed and late-to-market status finish them off leaving MC-CDMA to fill the void?
The worst that can happen is that the 6 Musketeers swap their royalties with each other for no charge and charge say 10% to outsiders. I bet IDCC won't like that idea and Ericy will think theirs is worth a cash adjustment.
However, that 10% would give the lie to the charge they make against Q! that Q! is greedy with 5% and holding up the development of CDMA.
Maybe Kennard and the FCC will step in with the Kremlin 5 year price plan, with Judge Jackson, Janet Reno and Joel Klein stipulating some 3G royalty by the greedy monopolists in the 6 Musketeers who are perhaps illegally going to harm consumers by excluding Q! ASIC division from fair, equitable etc royalty payments. If the 6 Musketeers are true to their word that royalties should just be a small 'engineering fee' then, since the Q! CDMA component is the vital intellectual property, they should charge perhaps only 0.5% for the DS-specific intellectual property.
Of course Ericsson, Nokia and co are liars and they will NOT charge only a teeny engineering fee for their technology. Same as they don't for GSM patents. They'll try to charge anyone not in the club a huge fee. As you say, if they get away with it, that means Q! ASICs division will be at a disadvantage since they'll have an extra 10% to pay to the 6 Musketeers. Those bandits won't pay each other. But even 10% extra would perhaps not sink Q! ASICs if they are good enough.
Alternatively, one of the 6 Musketeers could buy the Q! ASICs division which they could then use to produce ASICs 10% cheaper than the other 5 Musketeers [since they wouldn't have to pay the 6 Musketeer royalties]. Which might mean it would be better for Q! to sell the 3G DS ASICs division to one of those greedy Musketeers or, maybe better, just not support DS-CDMA - focusing on competing using MC.
This sounds a clear case for 'anti-trust' action by the KKK Klan. The formation of a trust by the common pooling of IPR by the 6 Musketeers to leverage a monopoly, set prices, exclude competitors and harm consumers not to mention the USA itself [through restricted trade in Europe and elsewhere] should give Judge Jackson something to do after he has dealt with Microsoft. Heck, Senator Lott of Laughs and others might even get in on the act.
Selling the ASICs and that wonderful engineering ability, which joined Mighty Q! because it was the best company on earth is NOT an ideal outcome. BUT everything has a price. Maybe the greatest value is to sell that technology. There is plenty more to go on with, such as Globalstar. Some said Q! needed to be in handsets and infrastructure to create value, but they sold them and it didn't hurt share value [on the contrary].
But didn't Ericy and Q! do a 3G cross license deal? So the 6 Musketeers might already be fragmented. IDCC IP might not have much value at all. So we are down to 4 Musketeers. So what's left?
If the W-CDMA gang doesn't give reasonable IP terms to Q! then Q! could perhaps withdraw from offering technology to 3G and just go it alone with MC-CDMA and there won't be any DS-CDMA at all! If the Musketeers steal Q! technology, then there would be the triple-fun damages for deliberate theft of IP. Would service providers be keen to get in that mess with Madeleine and Charlene and the anti-monopolist Judge Jackson with Joel Klein prosecuting?
At the moment, W-CDMA is still very much Vapour-Wear. Q! owns a one way toll-gate to $20bn a year. G! will be $200 a share at Feb 2002. The moon is NOT green cheese. It's the FUD put out by WSJ and co, which has caused a bit of price decline [also Alan Green$pan, OPEC, a Nasdaq crunch, profit-taking etc], not the Rah! Rah! pointing out what a lot of rot the FUD is. AND don't forget, Q! will be the first $1tn market cap company. Oh yes, Dow 16,000 Feb 2002.
Don't worry, 'clueless posters' did attract me but didn't offend me - having made the accusation, I thought it cornered you into defending that!
70%-DS vs 30%-MC? What? How about the reverse as per CDG figures which includes L M Ericsson as a member? Maybe 100% MC? Competition can be very tough and being big is no guarantee of success [as little Q! has shown over a decade vs those big Musketeers].
It seems that there might be some litigation over patents in 3G!
Clueless in New Zealand,
Mqurice |
