* Don Wolanchuk Interview **
Don Wolanchuk's (Timer Digest's 1999 Market Timer, Gold Timer & Long-term Timer of the Year ) interview on today's The Stock Market Observer, a local television stock show in Chicago that he speaks on every Friday at 2:15pm CDT. ( DW= Don Wolanchuk and GS= host Gary Salem)
GS: Much of the reason for today's give back on Wall Street, after yesterday's Greenspan induced rally, has to do with some earnings warnings and also Wall Street starting to look at something other than earnings, although very much related.
And all of this doesn't mean a heck of a lot to Don Wolanchuk of the Wolanchuk Report in Roseville Michigan. Because he still turns out to be the hot timer and that's according to Timer Digest, where he's been a Bull most recently and has been for quite frankly for a long, long time. And he joins us on the phone from his headquarters to tell us why and what's ahead.
Don, welcome back. I'm talking about some of the fundamental reasons for some of the market to be doing what it's doing at the moment. You're looking way beyond that.
DW: Those fundamental reasons are not a reason at all for what the market's doing.
Now cut that out!
GS: Ok, excuse me. LOL.
GS: Tell me what your technical work is telling you now and what your gut reaction is to what's happening and where we should be going.
DW: This week we're getting a lot of volatility usually associated with option expirations. Any time you're in options week, when you're up on Thursday, you're going to be down on Friday, or at least a good part of the Friday's day. Now, the next 45 minutes really you don't know what's going to happen. But if not much comes out here in the next 20-25 minutes, it could have a real strong push to the close. All this volatility is associated with options expirations, we just go through it month after month after month. And talk about month after month, the last 12 months have been about the boringest we've seen since 1991. It sort of wears you out. But it's really amazing. Put/Call ratios got really soft, really quick yesterday and then today they just went through the roof on the decline. So, sentiment is just chasing the market up and down. In other words, it's fearful on any little hiccup and euphoric on every little rally. So the sentiment overall, however, based upon equity put/call ratios, is really in fabulous shape as far as the long-term moving averages of sentiment based on that are concerned.
GS: What do the wave structures look like, the several that you use?
DW: The Elliott Wave structure, as far as I'm concerned, on the big picture finished up a large corrective wave last October. And we're in the process of moving up in impulsive fashion towards a big blast off towards the 16,600 Fibonacci target. It's a long-term target. So between here and that happy event of course, we're going to be treated to all this nothingness because these big moves only come rarely. And in between the big moves, they put you to sleep and they drive you crazy. And there's a lot of rotation and a lot of consolidation going on as inventories are being prepared for the next push. So in that vain, if you watch the Value Line Index, which is a broad measure of all these small stocks and market activity, that's been making historical highs over the past number of weeks.
You take stocks like the one's that we've been talking about time after time, that have had big moves and then they came down with the Nasdaq. These are the stocks you concentrate on like: Valence, Synthetic Blood, WaveRider, Voice Mobility, E-Phone. Lot of these startup companies, a lot of these low price issues, is where you're going to get all your big percentage gains. So in that vain, there are so many bargains being served up out there it's just a paradise. Really.
GS: Well, we'll leave you to enjoy your paradise and we'll talk to you again next week. Have a good weekend Don.
DW: You have a great weekend.
GS: You too. Don Wolanchuk, Roseville Michigan, Wolanchuk Report, Big Bull. He's the #1 Bull guy, Market-Timer, Intermediate Stock Timer on Jim Schmidt's Timer Digest.
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