Be careful to adjust for different fiscal years.
I found your rack-up of forward PEs interesting, but have some comments:
The EMS stocks have very different fiscal years, so if you simply use the FY01 earnings forecasts, you can get some very misleading numbers. For example, CLS and ACTM end their fiscal years last(December of 2001), whereas FLEX ends their FY01 in March, nine months earlier.
I try to use the next four Q's estimates in my relative valuation spreadsheet.
Another thing, most of companies only provide reasonable forward guidance on the following fiscal year when the current fiscal year is over. The estimates for the following year have sometimes proven to be inaccurate on a relative basis.
I use a spreadsheet to keep track of relative valuations, and then I swap between stocks, as I discussed somewhat on this thread over a year ago. This method has produced returns for me that greatly exceeded a buy and hold strategy on any single EMS stock, over the last 18 months that I have used it. This method is a major reason I still have such a large investment in the EMS sector. It is difficult for me to get a better return anywhere else, although several of my speculative stocks have done so over the last 12 months.
I do use some qualitative factors to adjust my final relative valuations. Over the time I have done this relative valuation work, it hasn't been critical if I have been off somewhat in my valuation analysis compared to the market action over a long period of time... The volatilities, and relative volatilities between the different stocks, have created more than enough trading opportunities to swap between stocks.
I normally only hold a mixture of FLEX, JBL, and SLR, but would hold CLS or SANM if the relative price was right. SCI has been a much slower grower, so I normally don't use it. In late June though, there was a terrific buying opportunity in SCI. Compared to my relative valuation analysis, and compared to historic relative valuation, SCI came up as a strong candidate for purchase.
As for ACTM, I have some concerns about management ethics and credibility, so I don't use them. I did use PLXS for a while, but haven't kept my research current enough to keep using them. This has likely hurt my returns.
This has been such a successful trading strategy for me, that I am afraid that I have gotten a bit lazy in keeping my fundamental research into their current business as comprehensive as I used to. If I am off a bit, it doesn't really matter, since the stocks exhibit enough volatility to eventually move through my relative valuation range.
Hope your efforts pay off for you, as well as mine have for me.
Paul |
