. . . Back to the Subject of Predictions for a bit. . .
[Getting out horn for tooting. . .again there is method to all this madness. . .so please play along.]
Does anyone remember my calling the market top in the Spring of 99? I said we'd undergo a major selloff after Tax day, April 15th. . and sure enough we did. . . Remember when I said I would sell before the Dogwood Blossoms fell? LOL
Then in mid-October I was the ONLY bull in the fields. . .running here and there saying "buy! buy! buy!". . . everyone thought I was a fruitcake. . .Canuck Dave remembers well. On October 28th, I wrote every bull on SI that the train was leaving the station. . . nobody ever seems to remember that very unpopular prediction. . . which came nearly to the day of the bottom of the Nasdaq.
Bull Rally Call. . [BEFORE Market open October 28:]
Message 11729755
"Bull Train" Pulling Out with or without you. . .[October 28]http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=11732629
William J. remembers my pounding the table on TUNE/LDIG at $2.75 early in '99, the penny stocks. . .too many to mention. . .how about the call of A.T. & T. up 10 in a single week. . .which came true to a T?
The Summer Strategy . . .Early Predictions for Year Ahead: [July 6]
Message 10404283
Or Gold stocks on July 21st, 1999, Message 10601063. .the very day they began a major upward move, while the markets sold off? We all did very well, while the rest of the market watched.
ADAP in the teens. . .well before its rise into triple digits and its 2:1 split. . .but then that was more of a stock call and not a prediction, wasn't it? Julie remembers my calling PLUG the next great technology, before they had even announced their IPO date. . .then urging everyone to load up at $16.
Summer Trading Range: Message 13610590
I'd have to say the most significant "predictions" were the market tops in March 1999 and 2000 and subsequent selloffs in April 1999 and 2000. Those are the ones that got me the most mail saying how much I had saved people by their following the prediction.
And as DA pointed out, the 2000 prediction of a major decline came when everyone least expected it and found it impossible to believe. . . especially when I predicted that REITs would outperform the markets. Many laughed at that prediction. . . which ultimately came true as all the markets sold off in such a hurry that many fled to REITs, of all things, for safety. Unheard of. . .ridiculous. . .yet the REITs and other similar Investment Trusts continued to pay out their dividends and yielded positive results. . . while the rest of the market floundered through the end of March. . .April. . May and part of June. A simple 18% gain beat every other sector, index and fund around.
Links to Spring 2000 Market Top Predictions. . .and what would happen in the Summer:
Message 13209188
According to the amount of Email I received after the March call. . . that had to be the "Most Memorable Prediction". .
How about those that have yet to respond? What do you think? And what would be the thread's general consensus?
Rande Is |
