Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls

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To: hhieslmair who wrote (68)	7/29/2000 9:21:57 AM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (1) of 195

Many cogent points, most of which I'm in at least some degree of agreement, but never say never. Another reason not stated is that shrinks do not give the "shrinker" the same level of chip output increase as in the past ( this is THE key driver forcing the move to 300mm). Also, we are not seeing the willy-nilly fab rush as last time around, where companies, and more importantly countries( especially Korea) built fabs at an insane pace for a market share grab. The boys got burnt bad last go-round, and there appears to be a built in caution- they're walking the tight rope of building enough but not too much. This could change, but if you look around there are not that many greenfield fabs being built nor planned relative to the last upturn. And don't forget Morgans three waves, for the semi equips. The most important will always be demand vs. existing capacity, which I agree looks very much in our favor for some time, but 300mm and new materials are drivers as well. Capacity and 300mm overlap, of course, but if you go 300mm everything must be new, not just some adds to an existing fab.

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